tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7218216369142003434.post3412912914171571645..comments2024-02-19T23:13:25.380-08:00Comments on Strategy With Purpose: Portfolio-Thread View (PTV©) , the armor of strategy warfare - Dealing with both expected and unexpected events?Charles Prabakarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15714461775981814360noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7218216369142003434.post-62963834611575127872011-04-15T12:53:33.766-07:002011-04-15T12:53:33.766-07:00Hello Ali, you bring up some great points of corre...Hello Ali, you bring up some great points of correlating the frequency of unexpected events to the impact of unexpected events - as the impact of unexpected events (albeit their low frequency) by and large, are always very high. <br /><br />Again, to your point, I agree that unexpected things, not necessarily are just big disasters – as they can range all the way from natural disasters up to the recent financial crisis of 2008, failure to embracing the edgy innovations, including not anticipating the capital shifts happening to emerging markets etc.<br /><br />More specifically, to your point regarding high impact producing unexpected events, if at all one thing, we learn from the recent earth quakes/tsunamis, including the aftermath of nuclear radiation effects etc is– most companies, are not at all prepared with their “Business Continuity Plans” in terms of recovering from the supply chain disruptions, that might arise from such events. For example, Toyota among, few other global companies who have substantial presence in Japan, recently has warned their dealers of the substantial shortage of vehicles for this summer. <br /><br />With that said, I also like your idea of linking unexpected event planning to risk maps - as unexpected event maps, in a way are both a superset and a subset of the risk maps – and so your point is very well noted.<br /><br />As always, you bring up some insightful comment Ali, and I appreciate it!<br /><br />Regards,<br />CharlesCharles Prabakarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714461775981814360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7218216369142003434.post-88408054905776364322011-04-15T12:03:37.269-07:002011-04-15T12:03:37.269-07:00Hello Charles,
First, I am privileged to have one...Hello Charles,<br /><br />First, I am privileged to have one of my presentations referenced in this important and creative presentation. <br />I loved the concept of seeing below the surface and strategizing based on the unexpected and expected events. It is alarming how many projects fail because of the unexpected events; yet many people deal with them from their comfort zones.<br />Rightly, you highlight the value of planning for the unexpected. I want to add an idea here that might trigger your interest. In planning for risk we define the frequency and the impact of risk. Truly, the unexpected events might be, but their impact might be alarmingly high. The severity of the unexpected events is thus proportional to the frequency of these events as well as their impacts. It might be rewarding to draw the Unexpected Events Map, in emulation of the Risk Maps.<br /><br />Again, these ties nicely with the long tail distribution in that low intensity profile events might have severe impacts.<br /><br />This post proposes many creative approaches to dealing with the unexpected. Being unexpected, they require the introduction of new thinking and approaches to dealing with them. This post makes a lovely reading by introducing new approaches.ali ananihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17948497521950629086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7218216369142003434.post-30361124151682903952011-04-15T11:54:06.670-07:002011-04-15T11:54:06.670-07:00Surya, you are spot on – and bring up an interesti...Surya, you are spot on – and bring up an interesting point of “reactive vs. proactive thinking culture” on leaders’ part – however, in fairness to them, the root causes for such mindset is the way companies measure and reward successes within their current culture or organizational/reward model. <br /><br />This is one reason, we have been saying that companies must step back and revisit the 6 macro dilemmas (or PTV©’s 6 macro dilemmas) facing their businesses and come up with the appropriate capability model (including a revised organization/reward model stimulating the proactive culture) of unexpected planning/long term mindset.<br /><br />With that said, changing culture as you know better than I do - is a larger topic, as culture has multiple dimensions – Trust, Behaviors and Interactions etc– and so, it takes time to change. As a matter of fact, I had replied to a post in HBR Executive Education group discussion (http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswers?viewQuestionAndAnswers=&discussionID=37979434&gid=2783644&commentID=33456181&trk=view_disc) recently, leveraging Ed Schein’s thinking on culture, and that might be of interest to you within this context as well.<br /><br />Appreciate your insightful follow-up question Surya.....<br /><br />Regards,<br />CharlesCharles Prabakarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714461775981814360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7218216369142003434.post-90548841968528841372011-04-15T11:23:16.579-07:002011-04-15T11:23:16.579-07:00Charles,
Excellent perspective and beautifully ill...Charles,<br />Excellent perspective and beautifully illustrated too.<br />You mentioned a couple of things: strategy has become a ceremonial exercise of planning for ... “expected events” - as opposed to planning for an environment that is filled with both “expected and unexpected events”.<br />And ... do we want our strategies to deal with just expected events or unexpected events or both? <br /><br />Just wondering how much of that is driven by the culture of Reactive vs Proactive thinking by the executives? Or, am I off base here?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07504930411226588007noreply@blogger.com